{"id":33371,"date":"2020-03-17T07:31:39","date_gmt":"2020-03-17T06:31:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tirsdagmorgen.no\/?p=33371"},"modified":"2020-08-11T15:41:12","modified_gmt":"2020-08-11T13:41:12","slug":"nar-baugen-gar-stott-men-horisonten-varsler-katastrofe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tilt.work\/blog\/2020\/03\/17\/nar-baugen-gar-stott-men-horisonten-varsler-katastrofe\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e5r baugen g\u00e5r st\u00f8tt, men horisonten varsler katastrofe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u00abVi bare kaster statsbudsjettet og begynner p\u00e5 nytt.\u00bb<\/strong> Omtrent det var budskapet fra Erna Solberg <\/strong>da regjeringen startet sin budsjettkonferanse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Like lite som statsbudsjettet akkurat n\u00e5 er en troverdig prognose for hvordan fremtiden vil se ut, like f\u00e5fengt er det \u00e5 pr\u00f8ve \u00e5 forutse hvordan din<\/em> virksomhets fremtid ser ut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Konsernsjef i konsulentselskapet Miles, Tom Georg Olsen<\/strong>, som ogs\u00e5 er fast spaltist her i Tirsdag morgen, beskrev sin hverdag akkurat n\u00e5:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abSom kaptein st\u00e5r du p\u00e5 broen og ser at baugen g\u00e5r fint i vannet, men du vet likevel ingenting om hva som ligger foran deg.\u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forberede, ikke forutse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u00abDet handler ikke n\u00e5 om forutsigelser, det handler om forberedelser\u00bb, skriver Amy Webb<\/strong> i artikkelen \u00abHow futurists cope with uncertainty<\/strong><\/a>\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ditt m\u00e5l som bedriftsleder i dag er ikke \u00e5 lage prognoser, det er \u00e5 forberede deg p\u00e5 det neste som kommer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I artikkelen peker Amy Webb p\u00e5 at virksomheter, som mennesker, har et limbisk system. Der kan engstelsen og depresjonen og desperasjonen gj\u00e6re og vokse og spre seg som gift i systemet. Det f\u00e5r ledere til \u00e5 ta ukloke beslutninger. Det gir medarbeidere s\u00f8vnl\u00f8se, urolige netter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hennes r\u00e5d er \u00e5 unng\u00e5 panikkbremsing. Som n\u00e5r du kj\u00f8rer p\u00e5 en isete vei og merker at du mister kontrollen. Instinktet ditt skriker til deg at du skal kaste deg over bremsene, men din fornuft ber deg ikke overreagere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abVi har havnet p\u00e5 en slik isete vei n\u00e5\u00bb, skriver hun. \u00abIkke panikkbrems.\u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Usikkerhetens akser<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I stedet r\u00e5der hun deg til \u00e5 bruke sitt futuristverkt\u00f8y \u00abAxes of uncertainty\u00bb, og beskriver metoden i grove trekk i ovennevnte artikkel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg tok henne p\u00e5 ordet, og brukte det p\u00e5 mitt eget lille aksjeselskap med \u00e9n heltidsansatt som snart m\u00e5 ta en samtale med seg selv om permittering. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeg satte to scenarioer opp med beste og verste utfall og plasserte det i et aksediagram. Ut fra det kunne jeg utlede noen muligheter og trusler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
En slags risikoanalyse \u00e1 l\u00e0 Amy Webb. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Den trenger \u00e5 videreutvikles. Men det er en start. Og kanskje en inspirasjon for en \u00f8velse du og dine kan gj\u00f8re i din virksomhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

God tirsdag. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS. Jeg inviterer til en liten virtuell event i ettermiddag. Les mer her<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les ogs\u00e5:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\nhttps:\/\/tirsdagmorgen.no\/2020\/03\/17\/muligheter-i-fare\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\nhttps:\/\/tirsdagmorgen.no\/2020\/03\/17\/korona-hvorfor-vi-ma-handle-raskt\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ditt m\u00e5l som bedriftsleder i dag er ikke \u00e5 lage prognoser, det er \u00e5 forberede deg og virksomheten p\u00e5 det neste som kommer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33374,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[1292,1283,1847],"kompetanse":[],"tema":[2280],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nN\u00e5r baugen g\u00e5r st\u00f8tt, men horisonten varsler katastrofe - 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