{"id":18262,"date":"2018-12-13T05:39:44","date_gmt":"2018-12-13T04:39:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tirsdagmorgen.no\/?p=18262"},"modified":"2023-04-17T13:02:52","modified_gmt":"2023-04-17T11:02:52","slug":"slik-blir-menneskehetens-fremtid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tilt.work\/blog\/2018\/12\/13\/slik-blir-menneskehetens-fremtid\/","title":{"rendered":"Slik blir menneskehetens fremtid"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bj\u00f8rn-Taale Sandberg tar ikke sm\u00e5 ord i munnen n\u00e5r han g\u00e5r p\u00e5 scenen for \u00e5 holde sitt foredrag p\u00e5 Software 2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det skal handle om intet mindre enn menneskehetens fremtid.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Og sett gjennom hans \u00f8yne oppleves den s\u00e5 str\u00e5lende at du b\u00f8r ta p\u00e5 deg solbriller raskere enn svint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Det er noen grunnleggende drivere som m\u00e5 v\u00e6re p\u00e5 plass for vi skal ha fremskritt og ikke tilbakeskritt, sier forskningsdirekt\u00f8ren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 I mitt foredrag  \u00abThe Future of Humanity\u00bb  er premisset at disse driverne er tilgang p\u00e5 tre ressurser: energi, data og evne til \u00e5 resonnere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Han strekker ut en horisont som g\u00e5r langt lengre i tid enn vi er blitt vant til i dag, hvor utsikten er skjult bak Trump Towers, kinesiske murer, Brexit, Putin og klimakrisen.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det handler om termodynamikkens andre lov og i hvilken grad vi fortsatt greier \u00e5 hente nok energi og kunnskap til \u00e5 motvirke kaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Termodynamikkens andre lov sier litt forenklet at hvis du ikke foretar deg noe med et system s\u00e5 vil det oppst\u00e5 kaos og uforutsigbarhet. Og det \u00e5 \u00abforeta\u00bb seg noe betyr i praksis tilf\u00f8rsel av energi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energiens slutt er kaosets begynnelse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Men det er ingen historisk empiri for \u00e5 tro at energi skal bli vanskeligere tilgjengelig eller s\u00e5 kostbar at vi ikke kan benytte oss av den.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energig\u00e5ten l\u00f8st<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u2014  I \u00e5r 1800 m\u00e5tte et vanlig menneske jobbe i 50 timer for \u00e5 betale for \u00e9n time med kunstig lys, sier Bj\u00f8rn-Taale. \u2014 I dag er det under et sekund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Og selv om oljen tar slutt en dag, s\u00e5 er det mange prosjekter p\u00e5 gang som etterhvert vil gi oss n\u00e6rmest ubegrenset tilgang p\u00e5 energi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014  Vi er i ferd med \u00e5 l\u00f8se fusjonskraftg\u00e5ten, og i 2025 kommer den f\u00f8rste storskala fusjonsreaktoren i drift i S\u00f8r-Frankrike. Hvis det lykkes, er energiutfordringene v\u00e5re i overskuelig fremtid l\u00f8st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014  Og lykkes det ikke, ser vi at solkraft blir mer og mer tilgjengelig. Forskjellen p\u00e5 solkraft og olje er at det siste handler om en begrenset ressurs, det f\u00f8rste handler bare om teknologi. Og teknologi blir billigere n\u00e5r ettersp\u00f8rselen \u00f8ker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014  Vi vil se at vinduer leveres med film som fanger energi fra solen, alle overflater vil kunne generere elektrisitet, kostnaden p\u00e5 str\u00f8m kommer til \u00e5 falle videre, og tilgangen vil fortsette \u00e5 \u00f8ke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friskere hjerner og mer data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 OK, da har vi l\u00f8st energig\u00e5ten. Fort gjort. Hva med de andre dimensjonene du trekker frem: data og resonneringsevne?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 At tilgangen p\u00e5 data, v\u00e5r kunnskap om verden, og v\u00e5r evne til \u00e5 h\u00e5ndtere den vokser, trenger jeg kanskje ikke \u00e5 understreke s\u00e5 sterkt i dette foraet. Hva gjelder resonneringsevne ser vi at vi stadig blir smartere. Gjennomsnittlig IQ har \u00f8kt med 20 poeng siden begynnelsen av 1900-tallet. Det har mange \u00e5rsaker, vi har friskere hjerner, bedre \u00absoftware\u00bb \u2014  alts\u00e5 utdanning, bedre kommunikasjon. S\u00e5 har vi ikke minst fremveksten av kunstig intelligens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Telenor sender \u00e5rlig ut sp\u00e5dommer, og nylig kom sp\u00e5dommene om teknologiske trender for 2019. Der st\u00e5r du som avsender. S\u00e5, hvis vi skal stole p\u00e5 dine sp\u00e5dommer om menneskehetens fremtid, hva kan du si om treffsikkerheten p\u00e5 sp\u00e5dommene fra \u00e5r til \u00e5r?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014  Vi traff ikke s\u00e5 verst i fjor med v\u00e5re syv trender for 2018. Der vi bommet grovest var innen fintech, hvor vi sp\u00e5dde at omr\u00e5det ville eksplodere som f\u00f8lge av \u00e5pningen av banksystemene. Det har ikke skjedd i Norge, men det har skjedd i mange andre land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Et teknisk problem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u2014  Hva er det mest spennende du kan si om menneskehetens fremtid?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Jeg pleier \u00e5 begrense meg til to omr\u00e5der: fremtiden til d\u00f8den, og fremtiden til kj\u00f8nn. La meg bare si det slik: d\u00f8den er i stadig st\u00f8rre grad et teknisk problem, og kj\u00f8nnsbalansen tipper i stadig sterkere i kvinners fav\u00f8r. Hvordan, hva og hvorfor? Det f\u00e5r du h\u00f8re p\u00e5 Software 2019. <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t

Bj\u00f8rn-Taale Sandberg<\/h2>\n

Bj\u00f8rn-Taale er forskningsdirekt\u00f8r i Telenor og medstifter av Verbatim Interactive. Han har hovedfag i informatikk fra UiO og en Mastergrad i ledelse fra BI. Han har bodd i Venezuela, Pakistan og England og v\u00e6rt innom Norsk Data, Forsvaret og Teleplan f\u00f8r Telenor. Han beskriver seg selv som en optimistisk futurist og mener det ikke er noen grunn til \u00e5 v\u00e6re pessimistisk p\u00e5 vegne av fremtiden.<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Intervjuet er gjort for Dataforeningen og originalt publisert p\u00e5 deres nettsider.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mens mange som speiler seg i n\u00e5tiden f\u00f8ler seg maktesl\u00f8se og pessimistiske med tanke p\u00e5 fremtiden, sitter det en forskningsdirekt\u00f8r hos Telenor som har resonnert seg frem til langt mer optimiske fremtidsvyer. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":254485,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[168],"tags":[1312,1378,1641],"kompetanse":[],"tema":[4956],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSlik blir menneskehetens fremtid - 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